One of the problems for service providers is determining how best to plan for periods of high demand. Usually there are predictors that can be tracked to determine cycles of demand. Some demand may vary by time of day, some by day of week, some by season of year; others may be event driven. Some of the questions below may help plan for fluctuations:

1. Do demand levels follow a predictable cycle? If so, is the duration of the demand cycle
   • one day (varies by hour)?
   • one week (varies by day)?
   • one month (varies by day or by week)?
   • one year (varies by month or by season or reflects annual events)?
   • some other period?

2. What are the underlying causes of these cyclical variations?
   • employment schedules
   • wage and salary payment dates
   • school hours and vacations
   • seasonal changes in climate
   • occurrence of public or religious holidays
   • natural cycles, such as coastal tides or phases of the moon

3. Do demand levels seem to change randomly? If so, could the underlying causes be
   • day-to-day changes in the weather?
   • health events whose occurrence cannot be pinpointed exactly?
   • accidents, fires, or even criminal activities?
   • natural disasters, from earthquakes to storms to mud slides and volcanic eruptions?

4. Can demand for a particular service over time be disaggregated by market segment to reflect such components as
   • use patterns by a particular type of customer or for a particular purpose?
   • variations in the usefulness of each transaction?

Page revised 2/28/2000.